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Showing posts with label Tuesday. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tuesday. Show all posts

Sunday, June 3, 2012

Super Tuesday challenge for Santorum in Ohio

CUYAHOGA FALLS, Ohio (AP) — Rick Santorum is facing a crucial test in Ohio, where he's drawing upon his working-class background and underdog image to try to stop Mitt Romney from scoring a pivotal victory in Super Tuesday's premier contest.

An unapologetic social conservative, Santorum has cast the race in Biblical terms: He's David vs. Romney's Goliath. Even that "is probably a little bit of an understatement," Santorum said Monday.

The former senator from neighboring Pennsylvania has a shell of a campaign in Ohio, with no state headquarters and a barebones staff. In Romney he faces a challenger who enjoys a massive cash advantage and a political machine that's produced high-stakes victories in other states when his front-runner status was in doubt.

Santorum expects to be competitive in several states Tuesday — Tennessee, Oklahoma and Georgia among them. But Ohio voters, perhaps more than any others among the 10 states voting on this Super Tuesday, may shape the fate of his campaign.

A Santorum victory could reshuffle the Republican contest, sending a powerful message that Romney's grasp on his party's nomination is by no means assured. A loss in Ohio, where Santorum has devoted much of his time and resources, may have lasting consequences.

Santorum will spend Tuesday night watching returns in Steubenville, an eastern Ohio town just a 90-minute drive from his own Pennsylvania hometown.

On Monday, Santorum largely set his aggressive social agenda aside and focused on his plans to revitalize the nation's manufacturing sector, while reminding voters across Ohio about his family's blue-collar roots. But as public polls showed a tightening race, Santorum's team also sought to lower expectations.

"This fight will continue and it's going to go on for a long time after this," a Santorum supporter, state Attorney General Mike DeWine, said on the eve of the election. "We're going to fight state to state. I think Rick is going to win ... but it's going to be a close race."


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Can Romney seal the deal on Tuesday?

We have held all along that Mitt Romney will be the Republican Party's nominee for president. Since his double win last week in Arizona and Michigan, his odds in the prediction markets have jumped above 80 percent. That's likely to go up again after Super Tuesday, since the most likely scenario has Romney winning 7 of the 10 states, Rick Santorum taking 2, and Newt Gingrich winning his home state of Georgia.

The question is whether voters in future primaries decide the race is effectively over after Tuesday and flock to Romney, or whether Santorum lives to fight another day in the polls. A big-enough night for Santorum could prolong his eventual defeat, since polls tend to be more short-sighted than markets. Here are the odds for tomorrow's individual elections:

We can predict with near certainty that Romney will win in Virginia (where only he and Ron Paul are on the ballot), his home turf of Massachusetts, neighboring Vermont, and Idaho. Gingrich likewise has odds of about 95 percent in Georgia.

Romney has 81.6 percent odds in the crown jewel, Ohio, though polls—which lag compared to markets—have him virtually tied with Santorum. (The odds swung significantly in his favor after last week's wins in Arizona and Michigan.) As we've noted before, this literally means that 1 out of 5 times, Santorum pulls off an upset win. Meanwhile, Santorum has 88.6 percent odds in conservative Oklahoma.

That leaves North Dakota and Alaska, where Romney has odds around 75 percent, and Tennessee, where Santorum leads with 57 percent of the vote.

There are 419 delegates at stake Tuesday, and Romney could take the vast majority if he meets or exceeds expectations. The former Massachusetts governor already has an 86.4 percent chance to be the Republican nominee for president, and he will still be the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination regardless of the outcome on Super Tuesday. The question is whether he can effectively seal the deal Tuesday, or leave Santorum enough delegates to hang on to even an imaginary claim to the nomination.

David Rothschild is an economist at Yahoo! Research. He has a Ph.D. in applied economics from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. Follow him on Twitter @DavMicRot and email him at thesignal@yahoo-inc.com.

More popular Yahoo! News stories:

• Twitter users lobby Limbaugh advertisers to drop business (or not) over Fluke controversy

• Poll: Santorum slightly ahead in Ohio before Super Tuesday

• Mitt Romney wins the Washington state caucuses

Want more? Visit The Signal blog, connect with us on Facebook, and follow us on Twitter. Handy with a camera? Join the Yahoo! News Election 2012 Flickr group to submit your photos of the campaign in action.


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