Can Romney seal the deal on Tuesday?

We have held all along that Mitt Romney will be the Republican Party's nominee for president. Since his double win last week in Arizona and Michigan, his odds in the prediction markets have jumped above 80 percent. That's likely to go up again after Super Tuesday, since the most likely scenario has Romney winning 7 of the 10 states, Rick Santorum taking 2, and Newt Gingrich winning his home state of Georgia.

The question is whether voters in future primaries decide the race is effectively over after Tuesday and flock to Romney, or whether Santorum lives to fight another day in the polls. A big-enough night for Santorum could prolong his eventual defeat, since polls tend to be more short-sighted than markets. Here are the odds for tomorrow's individual elections:

We can predict with near certainty that Romney will win in Virginia (where only he and Ron Paul are on the ballot), his home turf of Massachusetts, neighboring Vermont, and Idaho. Gingrich likewise has odds of about 95 percent in Georgia.

Romney has 81.6 percent odds in the crown jewel, Ohio, though polls—which lag compared to markets—have him virtually tied with Santorum. (The odds swung significantly in his favor after last week's wins in Arizona and Michigan.) As we've noted before, this literally means that 1 out of 5 times, Santorum pulls off an upset win. Meanwhile, Santorum has 88.6 percent odds in conservative Oklahoma.

That leaves North Dakota and Alaska, where Romney has odds around 75 percent, and Tennessee, where Santorum leads with 57 percent of the vote.

There are 419 delegates at stake Tuesday, and Romney could take the vast majority if he meets or exceeds expectations. The former Massachusetts governor already has an 86.4 percent chance to be the Republican nominee for president, and he will still be the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination regardless of the outcome on Super Tuesday. The question is whether he can effectively seal the deal Tuesday, or leave Santorum enough delegates to hang on to even an imaginary claim to the nomination.

David Rothschild is an economist at Yahoo! Research. He has a Ph.D. in applied economics from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. Follow him on Twitter @DavMicRot and email him at thesignal@yahoo-inc.com.

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In Michigan, Mitt Romney faces day of reckoning

SOUTHFIELD, Michigan (Reuters) - Mitt Romney faces a day of reckoning on Tuesday when Michigan votes to either grant him a big victory in the Republican presidential nomination battle or hand him a humiliating defeat.

Romney was born and raised in Michigan and his father was a popular governor, but conservatives are threatening to deliver the state to Rick Santorum, who is running neck-and-neck with Romney in the polls in the final hours before voting begins.

Most Michigan polls close at 8 p.m. EST (midnight GMT).

Arizona votes as well on Tuesday and Romney has a comfortable lead there, aided by the man who beat him in the 2008 Republican presidential campaign, Arizona Senator John McCain.

All eyes are on Michigan because a victory for Santorum on what is essentially Romney's home turf would raise questions about Romney's candidacy a week before a defining day of the 2012 campaign, March 6, the "Super Tuesday" when 10 states hold contests.

"I am going to win in Michigan and I'm going to win across the country," Romney said on Monday.

His aides, contemplating the possibility of a defeat, believe Romney could survive a loss in Michigan should it occur because of this year's elongated nomination process.

"The bottom line is you want to win it but it is not as devastating as you guys want to make it out to be if we don't," said a senior Romney strategist.

Santorum, a former Pennsylvania senator, has made himself competitive in Michigan by pressing his conservative views on social issues and by spreading a blue-collar message about the need to rebuild the manufacturing base in the hard-hit Midwestern state.

"We've been traveling all over the state, and I'm really excited about the response. I think we're going to surprise a few people tomorrow night," Santorum said on Monday.

A Santorum win could upend the race and prompt the Republican establishment - concerned that Santorum's strong religious conservatism could make him unelectable - to search for a new candidate to join the race.

An unpredictable factor in Michigan was the ability of Democrats to vote in the Republican primary and try to thwart Romney by voting for Santorum, who many see as having little chance of defeating Democratic President Barack Obama in the November 6 election should he become the Republican nominee.

AUTO BAILOUTS

The Santorum campaign tried to encourage the crossover vote with a robocall urging Democrats to send a message to Romney because of his opposition to 2009 auto bailouts that kept thousands of Michigan workers employed.

The effort was quickly condemned by the Romney campaign as a sign that Santorum "is now willing to wear the other team's jersey if he thinks it will get him more votes."

Romney has come back from a deficit in the Michigan polls to creep ahead in some surveys, and his aides believed his campaign has the organizational strength for a good turnout.

Other Republican candidates, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, are running far behind the two leaders and have not competed heavily, making the state a Romney-or-Santorum contest.

Romney has been hammering home his view that his experience as a private equity executive and former Massachusetts governor makes him the best candidate to defeat Obama and lead the U.S. economy back to strong job growth.

He has also been sharply critical of Santorum.

"I've spent 25 years in business," Romney said. "I understand why jobs go, why they come. I understand what happens to corporate profit, where it goes if the government takes it. This is what I've done for all my life. Senator Santorum is a nice guy, but he's never had a job in the private sector."

This kind of message is resonating among many Michigan Republicans.

"He could be more charismatic but a steady, good businessman is what we need," said John Bas of Berkeley. "Is he a rock star? No. But rock stars probably don't make good presidents."

Romney may not be a rock star, but he had one campaign for him on Monday. Kid Rock and his band joined Romney at a theatre in Royal Oak to play a song that is the signature anthem of Romney's campaign events, "Born Free."

Romney and his wife Ann watched the brief concert from the front row and clapped to the beat.

Romney persuaded Kid Rock to perform at the rally during an hour-long meeting last Thursday at the rocker's Michigan home. Kid Rock got Romney's commitment that if elected he would help the city of Detroit, the state of Michigan and U.S. troops, a Romney campaign spokesman said.

(Additional reporting by Sam Youngman; editing by Christopher Wilson)

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Battered and bruised, Romney is limping toward the nomination

(Gerald Herbert/AP)It wasn't supposed to be this hard.

As the Romney campaign chieftains looked at the path to the Republican nomination last year, they never envisioned a struggle to win the candidate's home state of Michigan.

However, a battle plan and the realities of war are rarely in concert with one another.

Few successful presidential nominees in the modern era have gotten to be the party's standard bearer without facing down a significant and potentially mortal threat.

Mitt Romney did just that tonight. But it wasn't pretty.

"We didn't win by a lot, but we won by enough. And that's all that counts," Romney told a room full of supporters Tuesday night in Novi, Mich., celebrating his dual victories in Arizona and Michigan.

Romney continues to rack up the delegates needed to secure the nomination, but he has done little to put to rest the concerns within his party that the process has not been kind to his standing with the American electorate, specifically the independent voters who will decide the election in November.

But what Romney did accomplish on Tuesday night is significant. His victories will invite more money into his campaign coffers, more establishment Republicans to endorse him, and a lot more questions about his opponents' abilities to deny him the nomination.

Most important, the Romney victories on Tuesday will significantly dampen the increasingly loud chatter of late that the Republican Party might need a white knight (Mitch Daniels, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush) to come in and save the day.

Romney's weaknesses become clear with each passing primary night. In Michigan, the only income group he won was among voters earning more than $100,000 per year. He still can't get the heart and soul of the Republican Party — the very conservative voters — to warm to his candidacy. And evangelical Christians remain unenthused.

Despite those holes in the support of his base, Romney made clear tonight he is going to keep his eye on November with a more broadly appealing economic message.

"More jobs, less debt, smaller government — we're going to hear that day in and day out," he said. "I stand ready to lead our party to victory and our nation back to prosperity."

And Romney wasn't the only candidate signaling a decision to move away from the recently dominant campaign trail talk on issues like contraception, abortion, and the separation of church and state.

Rick Santorum began his final pre-Super Tuesday push in a speech that started with his highlighting his 93-year old mother's college and post-college education (the kind of education for which he called President Obama a "snob" for encouraging) and her work outside the home as a nurse during Santorum's childhood.

It was clear in his remarks that Santorum was eager to begin to repair the damage he believes has been done to his image by having his campaign defined by his stances on social issues.

The candidates have seven days to make their closing arguments to voters in 10 states before the polls close on Super Tuesday. It is the largest single-day delegate prize of the nomination season.

Certainly a lot of focus will now be placed on the Romney vs. Santorum battle in Ohio. It is yet another Midwestern battleground state, but this time without the added benefit of a home-field advantage for either candidate.

But Romney's victory in Michigan will likely be viewed as the critical moment in the 2012 contest should he accept his party's nomination in August in Tampa.

As long as wealthy individuals remain committed to funding pro-Santorum and pro-Newt Gingrich super PACs, this contest will drag on beyond Super Tuesday, but if Romney racks up significant victories next week (both in number of states won and in number of delegates), the law of diminishing returns will begin to take its toll on his competitors.

Romney took a big step tonight toward becoming the Republican Party's presidential nominee. It just remains unclear when he will be able to earnestly begin the work of undoing the serious damage that has been done to him in the eyes of the larger American electorate.

David Chalian is the Washington bureau chief for Yahoo News.

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Want more of our best political stories? Visit The Ticket or connect with us on Facebook, follow us on Twitter, or add us on Tumblr. Handy with a camera? Join our Election 2012 Flickr group to submit your photos of the campaign in action.

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Battered and bruised, Romney is limping toward the nomination

(Gerald Herbert/AP)It wasn't supposed to be this hard.

As the Romney campaign chieftains looked at the path to the Republican nomination last year, they never envisioned a struggle to win the candidate's home state of Michigan.

However, a battle plan and the realities of war are rarely in concert with one another.

Few successful presidential nominees in the modern era have gotten to be the party's standard bearer without facing down a significant and potentially mortal threat.

Mitt Romney did just that tonight. But it wasn't pretty.

"We didn't win by a lot, but we won by enough. And that's all that counts," Romney told a room full of supporters Tuesday night in Novi, Mich., celebrating his dual victories in Arizona and Michigan.

Romney continues to rack up the delegates needed to secure the nomination, but he has done little to put to rest the concerns within his party that the process has not been kind to his standing with the American electorate, specifically the independent voters who will decide the election in November.

But what Romney did accomplish on Tuesday night is significant. His victories will invite more money into his campaign coffers, more establishment Republicans to endorse him, and a lot more questions about his opponents' abilities to deny him the nomination.

Most important, the Romney victories on Tuesday will significantly dampen the increasingly loud chatter of late that the Republican Party might need a white knight (Mitch Daniels, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush) to come in and save the day.

Romney's weaknesses become clear with each passing primary night. In Michigan, the only income group he won was among voters earning more than $100,000 per year. He still can't get the heart and soul of the Republican Party — the very conservative voters — to warm to his candidacy. And evangelical Christians remain unenthused.

Despite those holes in the support of his base, Romney made clear tonight he is going to keep his eye on November with a more broadly appealing economic message.

"More jobs, less debt, smaller government — we're going to hear that day in and day out," he said. "I stand ready to lead our party to victory and our nation back to prosperity."

And Romney wasn't the only candidate signaling a decision to move away from the recently dominant campaign trail talk on issues like contraception, abortion, and the separation of church and state.

Rick Santorum began his final pre-Super Tuesday push in a speech that started with his highlighting his 93-year old mother's college and post-college education (the kind of education for which he called President Obama a "snob" for encouraging) and her work outside the home as a nurse during Santorum's childhood.

It was clear in his remarks that Santorum was eager to begin to repair the damage he believes has been done to his image by having his campaign defined by his stances on social issues.

The candidates have seven days to make their closing arguments to voters in 10 states before the polls close on Super Tuesday. It is the largest single-day delegate prize of the nomination season.

Certainly a lot of focus will now be placed on the Romney vs. Santorum battle in Ohio. It is yet another Midwestern battleground state, but this time without the added benefit of a home-field advantage for either candidate.

But Romney's victory in Michigan will likely be viewed as the critical moment in the 2012 contest should he accept his party's nomination in August in Tampa.

As long as wealthy individuals remain committed to funding pro-Santorum and pro-Newt Gingrich super PACs, this contest will drag on beyond Super Tuesday, but if Romney racks up significant victories next week (both in number of states won and in number of delegates), the law of diminishing returns will begin to take its toll on his competitors.

Romney took a big step tonight toward becoming the Republican Party's presidential nominee. It just remains unclear when he will be able to earnestly begin the work of undoing the serious damage that has been done to him in the eyes of the larger American electorate.

David Chalian is the Washington bureau chief for Yahoo News.

More popular Yahoo! News stories:

• Romney wins pivotal Michigan primary as well as Arizona
• Cautious confidence, and some exuberance, at Romney's election night rally: Scenes from the Michigan and Arizona primaries
• Fighting drugs and border violence in America's most dangerous national park: What about the ranger's M14 rifle, Yogi?

Want more of our best political stories? Visit The Ticket or connect with us on Facebook, follow us on Twitter, or add us on Tumblr. Handy with a camera? Join our Election 2012 Flickr group to submit your photos of the campaign in action.

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Latino Mormons speaking out against Romney

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (AP) — When Honduran-born Antonella Cecilia Packard converted to the Mormon Faith 20 years ago, she said it was like "coming home."

The Catholic-educated Packard, who grew up in "the middle of Mayan ruins," appreciated the faith's strong sense of family and conservative values. She also saw her own history in the Book of Mormon with stories of migrations, tragedies and triumphs of a people many Mormons believe are the ancestors of some present-day Latinos.

But two decades after her conversion while a college student at Mississippi State, the 43-year-old Packard finds herself on a new mission: defeating Mitt Romney and any Mormon politician who betrays what she sees as a basic Mormon principle of protecting immigrants.

As Romney continues to seek the Republican presidential nomination while rarely discussing his faith, a growing number of vocal Hispanic Mormons say they intend to use Mormon teachings as a reason to convince others not to vote for him. They have held firesides (equivalent to a tent revival) on immigration, protested outside of Romney campaign events and have traveled across state lines to help defeat other Mormon politicians with similar harsh immigration stances.

"Yes, we are happy that we have a Mormon running for president," said Packard, a Saratoga Springs, Utah, resident and member of Somos (We are) Republicans. "But a lot of us aren't supporting him because of his stance against immigrants."

While stressing the Mormon faith's historic connection to converting immigrants, Latino Mormons point directly to immigration stories in the Book of Mormon and the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints' recent statements against policies targeting immigrants. They also view Romney's stance against proposals giving illegal immigrants a path to citizenship as hypocritical since Romney's great-grandfather, Miles Park Romney, who had five wives and 30 children, sought refuge in Mexico after passage of an 1882 law that barred polygamy.

"We view immigration as a God event," said Ignacio Garcia, a history professor at Brigham Young University and a Sunday school teacher at his Mormon ward. "The book says no one comes to the Land unless they are brought by God."

Those stories in the Book of Mormon, Garcia said, give Hispanic Mormons a powerful religious argument to use, especially since most believe they are descendants of the Lamanites, an indigenous group in the Americas described in the Mormon sacred text. According to the Book of Mormon, the Lamanites lived in the present-day American Southwest, traveled south and face years of hardship, and are prophesized to eventually return to the Promised Land.

In addition, Garcia said the recent political moves by Hispanic Mormons are gaining attention because Hispanics are the fastest growing group among the LDS faith in the U.S.

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints does not keep ethnic data on its 6 million or so members. But according to a 2011 national survey of Mormons by Pew Research Center's Forum on Religion & Public Life, Latinos make up 7 percent of Mormons in the U.S.

The church says the number of Spanish-speaking units has grown from 403 in 2001 to nearly 800 last year.

Garcia said it is estimated that nearly 70 percent of Latino Mormons are illegal immigrants. He said the church has responded by hiring members whose sole jobs are to transport some Latino missionaries from state to state because they can't fly due to their immigration status.

And last year, at least two Spanish-speaking LDS branch presidents were arrested and deported, highlighting the plight of immigrants within the faith.

Packard said those high profile deportations and the influx of new Hispanic members within the church helped with the recent passage of immigration bills in Utah that included an enforcement law modeled on Arizona's but balanced by a program that allows illegal immigrants to work and pay taxes in Utah if they register with the state.

Packard said she also was motivated to travel to Phoenix to campaign against the recently defeated former Arizona Sen. Russell Pearce, who authored Arizona's much debated immigration law. She and others also have helped organized other Latino Republicans to speak out against Romney.

Pablo Felix, a Spanish-speaking bishop of the Liahona Second Ward in Mesa, Ariz., was reluctant to criticize Romney but said the immigration stories in the Book of Mormon are powerful and one of the many factors that draw Latinos to the church and act on behalf of the faith.

Felix said he cannot be sure about his congregation, but he suspects some 60 to 70 percent of the members could be here illegally.

But Hispanic Mormons may have limited influence in Arizona's upcoming GOP primary and the general election this year. Garcia said that's because most are illegal immigrants and can't vote. Those who can, he said, lean toward moderate Democratic candidates.

___

Follow Russell Contreras on twitter at http://twitter.com/russcontreras.

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